So we’re not going to strike Syria after all. This is not the first miscalculation and cock-up from the Tory leadership, but it’s sure as hell the biggest.
Here are some observations and reasons on why the government lost the vote last night:
1. Certainly war-weariness, the shadow of Iraq, and Labour opportunism had a large part to play in the result. Let’s face it, Ed Miliband stumbled into this position. He was initially all over the place on this issue. And his speech yesterday was poor. Yet somehow he emerged the ‘victor’ (if you can call it that). Strange how British politics works sometimes, isn’t it?
2. The fact that Miliband has emerged a ‘victor’ illustrates how badly the government handled this affair. The government miscalculated and was complacent. It just assumed that everyone would fall into line in the end.
This was reflected in the speeches made by David Cameron and Nick Clegg. For my part, I was in favour of intervention in principle. But I had one major concern. What would happen if the missile strikes are proven to be inadequate and chemical attacks continue? Do we have the resources and resolve to carry on this campaign if necessary? This is quite important especially as there is always a chance that the war could escalate. Very rarely does a war ever go exactly how you envisage it. The government made no attempt to provide a serious answer to this point. Nor did it seriously address many of the concerns other people had. Now why would you not do this in a vote of this magnitude? There’s only one possible explanation – complacency. This is compounded by the fact that, let’s face it, the ‘against’ camp made far better speeches yesterday. The speech by Julian Lewis was especially thought provoking. Sadly, the government’s speeches did not come remotely close to this high standard.
And then there are the government’s relations with backbenchers. For years No. 10 has ignored and neglected these backbenchers. No.10 has often given the impression that it prefers to deal with Lib Dems rather than Tory MPs, and it sometimes seems to go out of its way to upset them. I have long said that this was a mistake. One day the government will need these backbenchers, and yesterday was that day. This is a lesson that the government needs to learn quickly.
All of this reflects my long-held concerns about the government’s political machine. Messing up in opposition is thing. Messing up a budget is another. But even I never envisaged that the Cameroon modus operandi would ever lead to humiliation on the world stage in this way.
3. This is also the consequence of a rather disconnected foreign and defence policy. Personally, the SDSR has changed my attitude towards military intervention. Defence cuts have consequences. I wanted reassurance from the government because I’m not sure that the UK could cope with any escalation of the conflict. I assume that the reason why they failed to answer my question was because they knew, deep down, that we can’t. Moreover, the government has never made the case explaining why defence is important and has not put enough priority into funding our armed forces. The Conservatives have spent the last eight years saying how important international aid is but not defence. In opposition, the party distanced itself from the interventionist doctrine of Blair. Is it any wonder that people are sceptical on the utility of military force?
4. Finally, let’s not leave out the Lib Dems. This episode has shown that they will do absolutely anything to stay in power. They opposed what they call the ‘illegal’ Iraq War because the UK didn’t get UN Security Council approval. But that didn’t seem to matter now. Whatever happened to that apology Clegg made last year? Well, there will be consequences for this inconsistency as surely left-wing, anti-war voters will now flock to Labour? This has consequences for the Tories too as the left will be less divided.
There can be no hiding the fact that the Tory leadership miscalculated badly. Britain’s reputation on the world stage has surely been severely damaged. Yet I still believe this could have been prevented.
If this doesn’t wake up the government’s inadequate and aloof political operation, I don’t know what will…
Image may be NSFW.
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Image may be NSFW.Clik here to view.
