Perceptions matter. If too many people switch off as soon as you mention your party’s name, then that party will never win a majority. In order to win in 2015, the Tories will have to tackle deep-rooted perception issues, some of which have persisted for over 20 years. This is why solutions offered by most commentators – ‘lurch to the centre’, ‘lurch to the right’, ‘bring forward this piece of legislation’, are insufficient. There are no quick fix solutions to the Tory electoral challenge as there are at least five perception issues that still need to be deal with.
1. Perception of division. Tory division in the 1990s and early 2000s was absolutely fatal to its electoral fortunes during this period. This largely subsided between 2005-2010, with the exception of mid-2007. But the division problem made a comeback in 2012. Nothing puts off voters more than a divided party. The ’90s should have taught everyone that.
2. Perceptions among minorities. Only 16% of ethnic minorities supported the Conservatives at the last election, and increasing this at the next election is something that the Conservatives must prioritise.
3. Perceptions about economic policy. It has always been the case the Tories always have to rectify the damage created by Labour. In doing so the Tories have to carry out what are on paper economically logical policies. But these policies, whilst logical, do come at some cost.
In the 1980s, the previous Conservative government removed subsidies to failing industries and tried to grip inflation. Whilst this would lead to a transformation of Britain’s overall economic fortunes, a key side effect was high unemployment. Today, this government aims to reduce the deficit, get a grip on the national debt, and is supporting quantitative easing. Whilst this has resulted in historically low interest rates, we should not be in denial that there is much public concern that prices are rising too fast, and that there are especially limited job opportunities for young people.
Therefore, the Conservatives have not yet found a way to administer necessary economic medicine whilst mitigating its side-effects and reassuring the patient that it will be good for them in the long term. This is a key perception that the Tories must turn around.
4. Perceptions among ’ordinary’ voters. The perception that the party is not for ordinary people is the most serious problem that the Tories need to tackle. Polling from Lord Ashcroft last year has indicated that only 24% of voters thought that the Conservatives were ‘on the side of people like me’. Among what Lord Ashcroft terms ‘suspicious strivers’ this figure was 20%, whilst it was only 8% among ‘entitlement anxiety’ voters.
5. Perceptions among ‘anti-politics’ voters. This is very much an off-shoot of the issue above. Defectors to UKIP and many disillusioned Labour voters believe that the Tories are part of the liberal establishment that they have rejected. Many of these voters want the Tories to be seen to focus on everyday issues such as the economy, public services, housing, crime, as well as issues where the Conservatives are traditionally strong.
So what should the Tories do now? As indicated, there is no magic bullet and it will take some time before these voters will be convinced. The Tories must ensure that its values, policies, and people relate to the public. The Tories will not succeed unless all three are in line with what the people want and expect. Below are some suggestions as to how they can achieve this.
Values
The Tories need to clearly show it shares people’s values and identify with their concerns. There are three components to this.
Firstly, the Tories must present themselves as having a real moral mission and purpose that inspires people to get out and vote. Central to this should be the aims of helping to unlock people’s (especially the poorest) potential. Representatives of the party must be seen to be genuinely passionate about this. They must also link traditional conservative values to compassion, moving the left off the moral high ground in the process. For example, they should make the moral case that you cannot help people realize their talents and dreams and to live fulfilled lives if you do not reform the education and welfare systems.
Secondly, the Tories should focus on the values that unite the party and ‘blue collar’ or aspirational voters. The party has to demonstrate it is not part of the aloof liberal establishment, and it therefore should shout loudly about where they and working class voters agree on, whether it’s crime, welfare, the EU, immigration, or anxieties about the erosion of traditional values. Above all, a form of conservatism needs to be created that is both economically pragmatic and socially conservative. Given that the values of the people and the Conservative party are so close, this should not be difficult to achieve.
Thirdly, whilst some of the perceptions mentioned above have a degree of validity about them, many are overblown stereotypes. The Tories must do a better job at combating these stereotypes and myths. For example, it was only until after Thatcher’s death that Conservative commentators really made the point that Wilson closed more pits than Thatcher. We have to remember that a myth or stereotype that goes unchallenged is one that gains traction.
That doesn’t mean, however, that they should be totally defensive. Where people have genuine concerns about the Conservatives’ record, the Tories should at least acknowledge them. They can say that Wilson closed more pits than Thatcher and that Thatcher did an enormous amount for the working classes, but also express understanding or at least awareness that some in the north felt left out. The Conservatives’ real ‘Clause IV moment’ will come when the party finally reconciles itself with the north.
Policies
Ensuring that the Tories have the right policies involves two elements. Firstly, the Conservatives must pursue policies popular with the public, especially in the areas of welfare reform and crime. The benefits of what could be achieved with a Conservative majority, and what the Liberal Democrats are preventing the Tories from doing must also be spelled out.
Secondly, and crucially, the Tories must ensure that it alleviates the side effects of its economic policy as much as possible. It must make reassuring people a priority. In some respects the government has already been doing this through measures such as taking the lowest paid out of income tax, freezing council tax, and freezing fuel duty. But despite this, people are still feeling the squeeze and the government must therefore build on these measures.
In terms of public sector cuts and redundancies, it must learn the lessons of the 1980s. It has to incentivize job growth in the private sector, and help people through the transition from leaving the public sector to working for the private sector. Moreover, it should take inspiration from and support schemes such as David Fishwick’s ‘Pop-up Talent Shops’, which is a great idea to bring unemployed young people and employers together.
People
The party needs to ensure that it has people in place who can communicate to ‘blue collar’ voters effectively. Moreover, it is important that the party is and is seen to be more representative. If the party’s main pitch at the election is that it will spread opportunity and reward aspiration, it needs to show that it’s actually practising it, otherwise people won’t take this message seriously.
Lastly, the party must be seen to be a welcoming party to everyone. It also means that the Conservatives must not alienate or insult naturally conservative voters, even if they have defected. It seems that after last week this message has now been fully understood.
The Tories face a difficult task ahead of them in changing perceptions. But if there is any time to do this it is now. Old party loyalties have gone. People don’t necessarily vote for a party out of historic allegiance anymore. Traditional Labour voters are increasingly fed up with an out-of-touch socially liberal Labour Party. Many traditional Tory assumptions on issues such as immigration, the EU, and crime are now mainstream views. The climate is perfect to build a new conservative coalition in this country. The key question now is will the Conservative Party seize this opportunity before it’s too late?
Blue Collar Conservatism will be hosting an event on Monday 13 May in Westminster which will examine perceptions and how the Conservatives can win the ‘blue collar’ vote.*
*The views in this piece are my personal views and do not represent the views of Blue Collar Conservatism.
