With the Tories lagging in the polls, there seems to be no shortage of people offering their advice to the Tories about what to do to reverse their fortunes. Since everyone is doing it, I thought I’d offer my two pennies worth as well. Many of these observations aren’t new, but they are worth repeating, and this blog post focuses on approach rather than policy and delivery. Here I offer five main points that the Conservatives should ponder as 2013 gets underway.
1. Improve the Number 10 Command Structure
Unfortunately in the political world, 2012 will be remembered for one word ‘omnishambles’. The rather confused government responses to the threat of a fuel strike, gategate, and the budget certainly suggests room for improvement as far as the government operation is concerned, and that’s an understatement.
The various incidents seem to suggest that a key weakness that plagued Conservative 2010 election campaign has yet to be corrected – an unclear division of responsibility and command structure among the senior political team. A lack of grip at the top means that creative differences and conflicting opinions within the team are left unresolved. As a result, in 2010, the Tory message was unclear and the immediate response to, for example, Nick Clegg’s performance during the first TV debate was inadequate.
In recent months some changes have been made to the Downing Street machine. We’ll have to see whether this improves or confuses matters further.
2. Ensure there is Policy Quality Control
The 2012 Budget was the supreme illustration of deficiencies in government policy development. The fact that so-many u-turns were performed by the government last year indicates that policies need to go undergo a much more rigorous process of quality control, and especially political quality control.
Former Special Adviser Luke Coffey sheds light on why so many mistakes are being made. At the time of last year’s party conference he wrote on The Commentator website in September: ‘if my experience is anything to go by, right now Special Advisers are scrambling to come up with last minute (and cost-neutral!) Party Conference policy announcements’.
I appreciate that life isn’t perfect and you don’t always have the time to create perfection. I also appreciate sometimes the best ideas do come late in the day. But this last minute ‘winging it’ approach to policy making cannot continue.
This state of affairs is puzzling given that these are decisions that can potentially affect the lives of so many people. The Conservatives are in government. They can, for the most part, decide on the timing to announce policy, and they can draw upon the resources of the civil service. The government must use its time and resources wisely to ensure that policies are tested and that they stack up financially, practically, and politically. This also means that there should be people working at the top of government who have some sort of affinity with the lives of working people and that they instinctively understand the potential political consequences of any new policy. The appointments of Lynton Crosby and Neil O’Brien represent steps in the right direction.
Since the party conference and the Autumn statement did not provide us with re-runs of the budget, it seems that the government is learning this lesson. But it must not lapse into bad habits again.
3. Build Bridges….and Don’t Pick Unnecessary Fights!
David Cameron must build bridges with his party. If you have a strategy based on confronting your own supporters, it can hardly be surprising that there won’t be many volunteers to help when the proverbial hits the fan.
In any case, the strategy of proving that the Conservatives have modernized by confronting the right of the party is deeply flawed. Firstly, it reminds voters of one the worst aspects of the previous Conservative government – division. Let us not forget that this was a key factor in toxifying the Tory brand in the 1990s. Nothing can turn voters off more than a party at loggerheads with itself.
Secondly, the idea that the Tory modernisation must emulate the modernisation of the Labour party of the 1990s neglects this important point. The Conservative Party is not the Labour Party. Whilst previous Labour leaderships could put some distance between them and the militant unions, and eventually isolate them, the right forms a fundamental and significant part of the Conservative coalition. To confront the right therefore risks creating a serious rift within the party, and this is why these confrontations always end in a mess rather than a ‘Clause IV’ moment. Number 10 would do better if it modernised the party by eradicating the perception that the Tories don’t understand the lives of working people.
David Cameron must also realize that not everyone who criticise his leadership is against him. Some are, and some do have an agenda. But others offer well-meaning constructive criticism because they just want to see the Conservatives succeed. They also want to see a Conservative Party emerge that aspirational voters can relate to. Number 10 must seek to bring those who can be reconciled within its tent again. If Number 10 merely lumps every critic in the same box, and believe that everyone is against it, then it will find itself isolated in times of trouble.
Therefore in 2013 a counter-productive strategy of internal confrontation must end. The top Tory team could achieve more if it consults and try and take Tory members with it. Also, it’s very unwise to alienate the very people you need to deliver leaflets and knock on doors come the election. This point needs to be remembered the next time the Tories have an overwhelming need to placate the Lib Dems.
4. Have a Clear Mission – Think Strategically and Long Term
A key problem that the Conservatives have had in recent years is that there has been too much focus on tactics, and not enough on strategy. Certainly, the Conservatives in opposition spent too much time chasing headlines rather than formulating a compelling winning message and programme. Even today, many potential voters are still rather confused about what the Tories stand for. And it was this neglect of strategy that gave Ed Miliband the space to hijack the Conservatives’ ‘One Nation’ slogan.
As Tim Montgomerie has noted elsewhere, the Conservatives have a rather haphazard approach to making policy announcements. One day there is a making policy announcement on health. Then a few days later there might be a speech on crime. The next day we might get some sort of schools initiative. But these events would often bear no relation to each other – the dots don’t seem to join up. What’s the narrative or broad approach that bind all of these activities together?
The Conservatives’ task must be to establish what they stand for, and to create an overarching purpose and narrative, based on conviction and principle. That narrative also has to be unique. At the centre of this narrative must, of course, be the focus on economic growth and encouraging entrepreneurship and job creation. But the Conservatives must also make their narrative unique by portraying themselves as champions of ordinary hard-working people against big institutions with a liberal elitist, complacent, soulless, out-of-touch mindset. Some CCHQ resources must also be devoted to developing a long-term strategy and messages that will especially attract working class and ethnic minority voters.
5. Focus!
The best way to show that the Conservatives have a higher mission is to relentlessly focus on the goal of helping working people. Making the odd speech in the hope that that will ‘tick the strivers box’ won’t be enough. The Conservatives cannot allow themselves to get distracted or diverted by issues that only the liberal elite obsess about. From now on, virtually every policy announcement, bill, press release, and speech has to have the goal of helping aspirational voters in mind.
The main theme of this piece is that the Conservatives have to get the basics right – namely to come up with an inspirational vision and sort out its organization. These problems are longstanding ones – myself and many others have been making these observations as far back as 2006. 2012 was the year where the Tory leadership was found out in terms of its main weaknesses. These fundamental issues have to be put right if the Tories are to make any progress in gaining support in 2013.
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