On Tuesday, the House of Commons will vote on the same-sex marriage bill. Personally, for what it’s worth, I’m not against the idea. But I’m not naive enough to believe that this will be a game changer in terms of changing people’s perceptions about the Conservative Party. I suspect those affected by the bill will make their voting decisions at the next election based not on one issue, but on a whole range of issues, not least their own personal political convictions. Nor do I believe it will convert many social liberals, who are ideologically far away from the party on most of the main policy issues, and will vote Labour or Lib Dem no matter what. Moreover, the public and the casual floating voter will have noticed that the Tories themselves are bitterly divided on the issue – and will not be impressed. I’m afraid that the bill won’t provide that ‘Clause IV’ moment that the party leadership so desperately want.
This is because I feel that the Conservative leadership is pursuing the wrong ‘Clause IV’ moment. This is not to say that putting right the perception that the party isn’t comfortable with some of the changes in our society is unimportant. But I believe that the chief cause of the continuing Tory brand problem is something else. It is the perception that the Tories don’t understand ordinary working people, especially in the north, that is really holding them back.
Looking at the electoral map. it’s the Conservative Party’s failure to make inroads in the north and working class areas that has prevented it from winning a majority. Polling, including Lord Ashcroft’s recent poll, has continued to show that there is still a big problem here. And still many parts of the north feel that the previous Conservative government abandoned them following the closure of the coal mines, which causes resentment and bitterness among some to this day.
Labour’s ‘Clause IV’ moment was about making their party acceptable to the middle classes and the south. The Conservative Party’s modernisation should be about making the party acceptable to the working classes and the north. It makes sense to concentrate on these voters as many of them actually share the party’s instincts on key issues such as crime. But they remain suspicious to the idea that the Conservatives can actually emphasise with them, and don’t believe that Tories can be sympathetic or supportive towards them if they fall on hard times. The Tories have to change this.
No doubt the Tory leadership will regard Tuesday’s vote as an important moment in its modernising project. But it’s only when the Conservative Party has confronted its past and made peace with the north can it really claim to say that it has achieved anything like a ‘Clause IV’ moment.
