I’ve been watching some of the BBC’s coverage on the 1983 election on BBC Parliament today. I didn’t watch all of it – I do have a life believe it or not! But this repeat could not have come at a better time as it provides some interesting lessons for the Tories.
1. ‘Blue Collar’ Conservatism wins elections. At one point in the coverage it was mentioned that the Tory party at this time was more in touch with traditional Labour voters than the Labour Party was. The point was made that Thatcher effectively carried on the ‘Macmillan dream’ of making inroads into the working and lower middle class Labour vote. This has been the key to Conservative success since the Second World War, leading to Tory landslides. It’s therefore such a shame that somewhere along the way the Tories completely forgot this. The current Tory leadership, after spending years trying in vain to win over metropolitan liberal voters who’ll never vote for them, have only just realised that it’s the Macmillan-Thatcher tradition that they should have been carrying on all along. Whilst the Tories now are belatedly on the right path, unfortunately, since the Tory leadership have been chasing other types of voters they have left the space open for UKIP to attract working and lower-middle class voters. This leads to my second point….
2. ‘United we stand, divided we fall’. A key defining feature of this election was how much the Conservatives benefitted from the split on the left during this period. In marginal after marginal, the Conservatives were able to come through the middle because of the votes between Labour and the SDP/Liberal Alliance were almost evenly split. The creation of the SDP did seriously undermine Labour, and prolonged Labour’s period in the wilderness. By contrast, the Conservatives were a strong, united political force. In her interviews, Thatcher stressed the importance of ensuring that her team is represented by all sections of the party, and had established a formidable Conservative coalition.
Today there is a danger that the opposite could happen. Disillusioned Liberal Democrat voters are defecting to Labour, making Labour a potentially strong electoral force again. Meanwhile, the right is fundamentally split. The growing popularity of UKIP is forcing the Tory vote to plummet to around 30% and below. It remains to be seen whether UKIP will be the Tories’ SDP. But one thing will certainly secure this – if the Tory leadership constantly alienate and their own supporters for no good reason whatsoever. The more the Tory leadership does this, the more it will drive their supporters into the arms of UKIP. And they’re going to get those defectors back if they continually insult UKIP voters. So it’s probably a good idea in the light of what happened in 1983 for the Tory leadership to regard traditional Tory and indeed UKIP supporters as part of the solution – not part of the problem.
3. The Tories were once a serious force in Scotland. 1983 was regarded as not a great year for the Conservatives in Scotland. Yet they still won 21 seats! You do get the impression a lot of the time that the Conservatives today have given up on Scotland. But they shouldn’t. Of course, as with the north of England, there are historic reasons (not least due to events after 1983) why Conservative support has collapsed in Scotland. But instead of ignoring the problem, shouldn’t the Tories make every effort to confront its past and make the party attractive again?
In many respects, 1983 seems like a different world. The Tories had the confidence of ‘aspirational’ voters. The right was united and the left was divided. And the Conservatives actually won a fair number of seats in Scotland. All three points are lessons that the current Tory leadership would do well to remember and learn from.
Image may be NSFW.
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Image may be NSFW.Clik here to view.
